Yesterday’s labor-market release, reporting on September 2025 data, brought a head-scratcher: the number of jobs created rose, yet the official unemployment rate edged upward too. On the surface it seems contradictory — but when you unpack how these numbers are built, you’ll see why this combination is meaningful, and what it means for interest rates, homebuying, and our region's distinct trajectory.

1. Understanding the Labor Market Numbers

To accurately read the headlines, it’s essential to know the source of the data:

Key data sources

• Unemployment rate (U-3): From the Current Population Survey (household survey), polling about 60,000 U.S. households each month.

• Jobs created (non-farm payrolls): From the Current Employment Statistics survey (business / payroll survey), sampling roughly 121,000 businesses and agencies.

• Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR): Also derived from the household survey.

• Local data: County-level figures (like Garfield County) are modeled using surveys, tax records, and estimations. These are less precise and more subject to revision.

Why this matters
The household and payroll surveys use different samples. That’s why you can see jobs up and unemployment up at the same time — this typically happens when the labor force is growing (more people looking for work) faster than jobs are being added.

2. Why This Combination Matters

This mix of higher job growth and slightly higher unemployment suggests expansion, not overheating:

For the Federal Reserve

• If unemployment stabilizes or ticks up while inflation remains sticky, the most likely move is holding rates steady, not cutting fast.

For homebuyers

• Steady job growth supports income stability.

• Slightly higher unemployment can soften extreme wage pressure.

• Mortgage affordability is still shaped by current rates (around 6.25% for a 30-yr fixed this week).

For our region

• In places like Roaring Fork and Garfield County, a tight labor market remains a tailwind for housing demand.

3. Our Local Market Strength

Garfield County remains one of the most resilient local economies in the state.

5-year context

• While the U.S. is in a “tight but cooling” phase post-2021/22, Garfield County unemployment recently sits in the low ~3% range.

Key local drivers

• Construction, healthcare, tourism, and education are still expanding.

• Population projections point to steady growth toward ~68,600 by 2030.

A tight labor market remains

• Low unemployment + rising employment = continued housing demand.

• Risk to watch: shortages in trades and hospitality could push up local wage inflation and construction costs.

4. Local Price Reality & Market Nuance

Your latest Garfield County data (Altos Research) confirms a highly localized market:

Market Action Index (MAI)

• Currently 31 – Slight Seller’s Advantage

• The lower 50% of the market remains highly competitive, driving the index.

Median list price: $1,095,000

• A lower median doesn’t automatically mean prices are “down.”

• Higher inventory in lower-priced areas (e.g., Rifle) can pull the overall median down even if Carbondale and Glenwood Springs remain strong.

Inventory is rising — but still tight

• Around 259 single-family homes, which is seasonally normal but structurally low given demand.

The structural shortage

• Estimated 1,975-unit housing deficit for the full-time workforce.

• Home values in the county have risen 197.9% since 2012, outpacing the state average.

• Long-term price pressure remains upward.

5. Investor Lens: Buy the Structural Shortage

In a market defined by undersupply and high rental demand:

• Average rent in Garfield County: ~$2,586

• U.S. national average: ~$1,743

Strategic focus

• Workforce-oriented rentals

• Multifamily

• Entry-level single-family homes for long-term tenants

These assets are aligned with real demand, not speculation.

6. What Experts Are Watching Next

• Will unemployment continue to tick up while job growth holds?

• Will inflation (especially housing/services) cool enough for the Fed to ease?

• Will mortgage rates stabilize or decline?

• Locally: will housing supply keep pace with population and labor force growth?

7. Accuracy & Timing Notes

• County-level data is modeled and subject to revision.

• Payroll data is large and trend-reliable but still revised annually.

• Always note data timing:
  Example: “30-yr fixed mortgage rate of 6.26% — week of Nov 20, 2025.”

If you’re considering buying or selling this winter, let’s talk about how the labor market and structural housing shortage in this valley affects your strategy. If you’d like a tailored payment scenario, I can connect you with one of our trusted local mortgage partners.

Sources

• U.S. BLS – Employment Situation Summary (Sept 2025)

• BLS: “Why two monthly employment measures?”

• Journalists’ Resource: Jobs report breakdown

• NY Fed analysis on household vs. establishment surveys

• Common Sense Institute – Colorado Mountain Counties

• Altos Research – Garfield County (Nov 21, 2025)

• Zillow Rental Market Trends – Garfield County

• Colorado State Demography Office